Not since 1969 has an election for President of India held as much
political significance as the one we are about to witness in 2012. Most
presidential elections are a sail-through for the candidate of the
ruling party or coalition. In 1969, Mrs Indira Gandhi used the
presidential election to consolidate her hold over the Congress when she
put up vice-president V.V. Giri as an alternative candidate to the
Congress party's official candidate, Neelam Sanjiva Reddy. Giri defeated
Reddy in a close contest. Mrs Gandhi split the Congress and made the
powerful old 'syndicate' irrelevant. In 2012, the central actor in the
presidential drama is another Mrs Gandhi. The stakes for her are as high
as they were for her mother-in-law in 1969. The authority and the
political legitimacy of the UPA has steadily eroded between 2009 and
2012. Sonia Gandhi is the sole arbiter for the Congress and was keeping
everyone on tenterhooks with her choice of candidate until her allies
Mamata Banerjee and Mulayam Singh Yadav preempted her by announcing
their own list of three candidates- former president APJ Abdul Kalam,
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and former Lok Sabha speaker Somnath
Chatterjee.
Mamata and Mulayam are driving a hard bargain with the Congress. Both
want generous financial grants from the Centre for their states in
return for assured support and in the case of Mulayam, perhaps, a
vice-presidential nominee too. It isn't easy for the Congress to oblige
them. This kind of blackmail is most unfortunate and if the Congress
were to succumb, it would greatly damage the integrity of the political
system. But as long as they are in the bargain bazaar, others, including
the NCP and DMK will seek their pound of flesh.
The current scenario is dramatically different from the one Mrs
Gandhi faced when she had to choose a candidate for president in 2007.
At that time, she pulled the obscure Pratibha Patil out of her hat at
the last minute. Such was the political control Mrs Gandhi exercised
that there were no murmurs of dissent from either her own party or any
coalition partner. In terms of numbers, Congress was weaker at the
Centre then than it is now-it had only 146 seats in the 14th Lok Sabha,
fewer than the 206 it commands in the current Lok Sabha. Still, Patil,
despite several controversies that surrounded her, romped home against
the opposition candidate, then vice-president, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat.
Fortunately, Mrs Gandhi cannot force a Pratibha Patil-type of
candidate in 2012. Apart from troublesome allies, there is no clear
consensus in Congress. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has made his
availability as a candidate well known but Mrs Gandhi has seemed
reluctant to openly back him. Her choices may be limited, especially if
the BJP, its allies and former NDA constituents all back Mulayam and
Mamata's choice of Kalam. The numbers game could potentially shift
against Mrs Gandhi and the Congress decisively and place Kalam as the
firm favourite. Everyone is now watching the presidential race keenly to
see how much control Mrs Gandhi still retains over her allies.
Our cover story, written by Senior Editors Priya Sahgal and Devesh
Kumar and Deputy Editor Dhiraj Nayyar, puts together all the
behind-the-scenes negotiations that have turned this election into a
real battle of nerves and a bargain bazaar. It's too early to say who
will become president. But whatever the outcome, it will have real
consequences for the future of the UPA and its ultimate boss, Sonia
Gandhi. Defeat for the Congress candidate could put the UPA Government
in danger. At any rate, I hope that the country's dignity and prestige
won't be sacrificed at the altar of political convenience.(count-India Today-thanks)